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Tropical Cyclone Formation Probabilities & More |
Julian Oscillation (MJO)
The MJO is an
eastward progressive wave of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall that
moves around the globe in 30-60 day cycles.
About this Product: The green contours indicate enhanced moisture
and rainfall activity that can help in the formation of a tropical
cyclone. The red contours indicate a suppressed phase of the MJO
with little to no moisture and rainfall that can suppress the
environment for tropical cyclones to form. Note that the MJO is
not always needed for development however, but can be a huge help to
distinguish favorable and unfavorable environments.
GFS Ensemble Forecast
About this Product: Below illustrates the
GFS ensemble model forecasts for the MJO. When these model members
reach quadrants 1 and 8 the Atlantic Basin is in a favorable MJO pattern
for tropical cyclone formation.
The yellow lines are the twenty ensemble members and the green line is
the ensemble mean (thick-week 1, thin-week 2). The dark gray shading
depicts 90% of the members fall in this area and the light gray shading
indicates 50% of the members.
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
The NAO is a meteorological
phenomenon of differences of mean sea level pressure in the North Atlantic.
North Atlantic Oscillation
About this Product: The image below shows the observed NAO activity
dating back to the beginning of the current year (solid black line) and
the model ensemble forecasts. Studies have shown that Atlantic
hurricanes are more prone to make landfall during a positive NAO cycle
due to a stronger Bermuda/Azores high pressure system.
200hPA Height Anomalies
About this Product: The image below shows the 200hPA global height
anomalies over the last 30 days based off the 1981-2010 base periods.
The darker colors indicate above normal heights while the lighter colors
indicate below normal heights.