Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

June 19 2016 1:00 P.M. CDT


Invest 94L Slowly Developing
An area of low pressure has formed over the southern Bay of Campeche producing showers and thunderstorms, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in Mexico.  This morning and early afternoon satellite imagery showed that 94L has a modest spin, but the majority of the convection remains to the east and southeast of the center thanks to high westerly wind shear of 20knots, and drier air working into the circulation from the south.  However, more banding has taken shape to the northwest side of the center, hinting the system is slowly trying to develop.


Figure 1: Satellite imagery of 94L over the southern Bay of Campeche this afternoon.



The Forecast For 94L
94L has a chance to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in the next 24hrs as wind shear is expected to become slightly more favorable for development, and it continues to remain over warm sea surface temperatures that are near 30.1C (86.18F)Regardless of development, heavy rain is expected over mainland Mexico, particularly between Tampamachoco, Mexico and points north.



The Rest Of The Tropics Are Quiet
The rest of the tropics are quiet and none of the reliable computer forecast models are calling for any development in the next 5 days.  However, the GFS has been hinting at possible development in the western Caribbean Sea beyond 5 days heading into the last week of June.



Derek Sibley